The USDTRY pair continues the downward movement of the correction between the strong support and the strong resistance between 5.48 and the 5.10 level.
In the last week, the W1 graphics signal was in the direction of the buy direction signal, but it's too early to confirm a bullish channel up yet.
However, if the 5.10 level resistance breaks in the weekly chart, a bearish channel continues will confirm until next resistance at 4.63 levels via montly chart.
If the 4.63 resistance breaks again in the next of the start of this decline movement, it is important to know that the next bullish channel is not the slightest resistance up to 2.87 in the first place.
In short, when the congested course in the 5.10 - 5.48 band determines its direction, below 4.62 is the 6.39 primary support and resistance points.
USDTRY is also the leading factor supporting the downward direction is the swap calculations.
While the overnight swap SELL positions receives + $ 34 awards per lot, the cost of BUY positions, - pays $ 90 per night. For this reason, long term transactions of buy positions in the market are close to impossible. Those in the SELL position continue to receive + $ 34 per day per day in the downtrend starting at 7.064.
A lot of investors who opened a position in the market at 7.0645 wrote a 1-lot investment + $ 5700 positive swap revenue over the last 7 months. With the fall of the currency, the 1-lot position gained 28 times. In this calculation, USDTRY has been trapped in the range of 5.1 to 5.4 horizontal bands since December, when the positions opened from 7.06 continued.
The question is, will this bear market trend continue?
According to my analysis system, the upper boundery price of the rise channel is still far below the market price, so the market is at least the upper boundary point before starting the exit again.
Another scenario would be that the market price will continue to run in a horizontal neutral release in the 5.10 - 5.4 band for the next 3 to 4 years.
Expected direction: BEARISH.
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