USD JPY CHAT ANALYSIS JAN 19 2026

 The chart on your screen shows a recent strong **uptrend** in USD/JPY on the H1 timeframe that has just broken down and is now in a correction or potential trend reversal phase. 



What the chart shows

- The left side is a clear series of higher highs and higher lows, with price riding above both the light-blue and orange moving averages, indicating bullish momentum.   

- Near the middle/top, price stalls and forms a rounding top/sideways area, suggesting buyers are losing strength before the drop.   

- On the right, price breaks below the light-blue average and is now testing or piercing the long orange average, showing a shift from strong bullish control to seller pressure. 


## Current bias

- The immediate momentum is **down**, as seen by the sharp candles breaking below prior support and moving averages.   

- However, the long orange average (likely a higher-period MA) is acting as major dynamic support; whether price holds above or closes well below it will decide if this is a pullback or the start of a larger downtrend. 


## Key levels to watch

- Recent swing high around the top of the move (where your vertical shaded region ends) is major resistance; as long as price is below this, upside is limited.   

- The horizontal dashed line near current price marks important support; repeated rejection here suggests a bounce, while a clean close below it opens room for further downside. 


## How to trade this (general ideas)

- Aggressive traders might look for short setups on failed bounces back toward the light-blue MA, keeping stops above the recent swing high and targeting lower supports.   

- Conservative traders wait to see if the orange MA holds:  

  - If it holds and price closes back above the light-blue MA, consider the uptrend resuming.  

  - If price closes clearly below the orange MA and retests it from underneath, that favors a new downtrend. 


## Risk and timeframe notes

- This is an H1 chart, so signals are intraday and can be noisy; align trades with higher timeframes (H4, D1) to avoid overreacting to short-term spikes.   

- Always size positions so a single trade loss is small relative to your account (for example, 1–2% maximum) and avoid trading solely off one indicator or screenshot.




Comments