The NZD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins.

The NZD is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest as the NA session begins. The movement in all the currency pairs are very modest. The biggest mover in the morning snapshot is the NZDCAD at 0.21%. That is not a lot. Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of crucial U.S. inflation data while keeping a close eye on debt ceiling negotiations in Washington. The US CPI is awaited at 8:30 AM ET. The expectations are for * CPI (YoY): +5.0% expected, matching March's +5.0% * CPI (MoM): +0.4% expected, up from March's 0.1% * Core CPI (YoY): +5.5% expected, slightly lower than March's +5.6% * Core CPI (MoM): +0.4% expected, same as March's +0.4% Those numbers are still well above the 2.0% target. This data will likely influence expectations for the Fed's interest rate decisions. Fed comments keep on returning back to the shelter component which is keeping the core/service inflation high. That measure has continued to move higher despite calls that it would start to move lower due to the nature of its calculation within the CPI. Last month, the shelter component rose 0.6%. (see prior report HERE) Debt ceiling talks are also taking center stage in the U.S., with a looming deadline threatening default. President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy have been in discussions but have not yet reached an agreement. The exact drop dead date for the debt limit is uncertain (it depends on tax flows and outflows), but it's expected to arrive early next month (as early as June 1 according to Treas Sec. Yellen. In the meantime, stock futures are mixed as investors stay cautious before the CPI release. The Dow has only 1 day higher in the month of May. The S&P and Nasdaq only 2 (of 7 coming into today). Disney will release after the close today. Oil prices have dropped as traders brace for U.S. inflation data and react to an unexpected increase in the private oil inventory levels near the end of day yesterday. The private data showed a build of 3.618M barrels (the expectations are for -0.917M). This surge in inventory has led to concerns over demand in the U.S. Economic news overnight showed: * Japan's Leading Indicators came in at 97.5%, slightly below the estimate of 97.9% and lower than the previous month's 98.0%. * Germany's Final CPI (m/m) was as expected at 0.4%, consistent with both the estimate and the previous month's figure. * Italy's Industrial Production (m/m) underperformed, showing a decrease of 0.6%, significantly lower than the 0.2% increase that was estimated and the previous month's 0.2% decrease. A snapshot of the markets as the NA session begins shows The major stock indices are mixed/little changed: * Dow industrial average down 58 points versus -56.88 point decline yesterday * S&P -4.75 points after yesterday's -18.95 point decline yesterday * Nasdaq is up 7 points after yesterday's -77.36 point decline yesterday in the European equity markets this morning, major indices are lower: * German DAX -0.28% * Frances CAC -0.26% * UK's FTSE 100 -0.13% * Spain's Ibex -0.02% * Italy's FTSE MIB -0.35% in Asia-Pacific markets: * Japan's Nikkei 225 -0.41% * Australia's S&P/ASX -0.12% * Shanghai composite index -1.15% * Hang Seng index -0.53% in the US at that market, yields are mixed with the two-year yield higher while the 10 and 30 year yield lower: * 2 year yield 4.064% +4.0 basis points * 5 year yield 3.506% +1.0 basis points * 10 year yield 3.507% -1.5 basis points * 30 year yield 3.813% -3.5 basis points in the European debt market, benchmark 10 year yields are also lower: This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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